Saturday Bound: Aethelwulf's golden ticket dilemma splits Sydney and Melbourne

Each Monday, Saturday Bound takes an early look at the weekend nominations, the likely fields and the first markets as the major players decide where they'll line up.

This Saturday is one of the biggest of the spring so far. Flemington hosts the Turnbull Stakes and a host of important Melbourne Cup and Coolmore lead-ups, while Randwick rolls out two Group 1s headed by the Epsom Handicap and Flight Stakes, plus a crucial final Everest hit-out in the Premiere.

G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) — SWP

The Turnbull is one of the defining Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup lead-ups of the Melbourne spring, and this year's edition brings together several genuine contenders for the majors.

Sir Delius ($2.50) is the clear favourite as he continues his Cox Plate preparation. He won this race last year and connections have deliberately tried to keep more speed in his legs this campaign, with the Turnbull shaping as his final run before Moonee Valley.

Aeliana ($4.00) and Birdman ($5.00) head the Chris Waller challenge, while Cosmic Crusader ($10.00) is next in the market. Last year's Caulfield and Melbourne Cups winner Half Yours ($13.00) also adds another dimension, with Saturday an important fork in the road between a Cox Plate tilt and defending his Caulfield Cup crown.

G3 The Bart Cummings (2520m)

This race has one massive carrot attached to it: the winner earns a guaranteed start in the Melbourne Cup.

That explains why exciting stayer Aethelwulf ($2.10) dominates the early market. He has won five of his seven starts and demolished his rivals in the Newcastle Gold Cup, but connections have a decision to make — run here for the Melbourne Cup golden ticket or stay in Sydney for The Metropolitan.

If he heads south, Saturday becomes easily the biggest test of his short career. Jennivamoose ($7.00) heads the chasing pack ahead of Kings Valley and Litzdeel at $9.00.

G2 Danehill Stakes (1100m) — 3YOs

The Danehill is where the road towards the Coolmore Stud Stakes really starts to take shape for the three-year-old sprinters.

Natural Fling ($2.30) is clearly the horse to beat after her excellent run against the older sprinters in the Group 1 Moir Stakes. She has been kept fresh since and her recent Flemington jumpout was designed to top her off for Saturday.

The Next Episode ($6.00) makes his much-awaited Melbourne debut, with Mbube ($7.00) and Over Excited ($7.00) next in the market. The straight 1100m should tell us plenty about which of these three-year-olds are genuine Coolmore horses.

G2 Gilgai Stakes (1200m)

The Gilgai brings the established straight-track sprinters back to Flemington, with Hedged and Losesomewinmore sharing favouritism at $7.00, ahead of King's Secret ($8.00) and Skybird ($8.00).

Losesomewinmore has become something of a Flemington straight specialist, winning six races over 1000m–1200m at headquarters. His latest victory came over Hedged and connections immediately identified the Gilgai as his next target.

Hedged was also deliberately kept out of the Manikato to head here instead, setting up another clash between the pair.

G2 Rose of Kingston Stakes (1400m) — mares

The mares get their chance over 1400m in the Rose Of Kingston, with the market suggesting a very open race.

On Display ($5.00) and Tennessee Bound ($5.00) share favouritism, with Gold Coast Belle ($7.00) the next elect and Pondalowie ($10.00) behind them.

For the better mares here, Saturday is an important step towards the stronger female races deeper into the Melbourne spring, particularly as the distances stretch towards the mile.

Randwick

G1 Epsom Handicap (1600m)

One of Australia's great mile handicaps has a fascinating mix of emerging horses and established Group 1 performers, with Autumn Boy ($3.00) heading the early market from unbeaten New Zealand star Well Written ($4.00) and Attica ($6.00).

Well Written arrives in Australia unbeaten in seven starts, including two Group 1s, and gets Zac Lloyd for her Australian debut. The Epsom is also an important stepping stone towards her major spring target, the $10 million Golden Eagle at the end of October.

Autumn Boy has been one of the big market movers for the race, while the presence of Ceolwulf ($8.00) gives the potential field some serious established mile quality.

G1 Flight Stakes (1600m) — 3YO fillies

The Princess Series reaches its grand final with the Flight Stakes, a Group 1 at set weights over 1600m.

There is nothing between Global Goal ($3.00) and Striking Alibi ($3.00) in the market, with Tea Rose winner Bangkok Hottie ($4.50) close behind.

Striking Alibi was unlucky when second to Bangkok Hottie in the Tea Rose, while Global Goal finished third after also catching the eye earlier in the Princess Series.

They now get to 1600m and the talking stops — Saturday decides the leading three-year-old filly of the Sydney spring.

G2 Premiere Stakes (1200m)

Three weeks out from The Everest, the Premiere Stakes is all about putting the finishing touches on the major sprint campaigns.

Last year's Everest runner-up Tempted ($1.80) dominates the market after a brilliant first-up win in the Concorde. Her campaign has been built around getting back to The Everest, with the Premiere her final major hit-out.

Ninja ($7.00) and Headwall ($8.00) are also firmly in the Everest picture, making Saturday an important final checkpoint before the $20 million sprint.

G2 The Metropolitan (2400m)

The staying feature is currently headed by Aethelwulf ($3.00), but whether he actually turns up at Randwick remains the big question.

Connections are weighing up The Metropolitan against the Bart Cummings at Flemington, where victory would guarantee Aethelwulf a Melbourne Cup start. The lightly raced four-year-old has won five of seven and comes here off a dominant Newcastle Gold Cup victory.

If he stays home, The Euphrates ($3.50) and Soul Of Spain ($5.00) head the opposition, with Juja Kibo ($7.00) next.

G3 Gimcrack Stakes (1000m) — 2YO fillies

And just as the current three-year-olds start chasing their spring Group 1s, the next generation arrives.

The Gimcrack is the first major Sydney test for the new-season two-year-old fillies, with Shezablaze ($3.50) heading the early market from Everlasting Grace ($4.00) and She's Supreme ($5.00).

These are largely unknown quantities at this point, but the Gimcrack traditionally gives us our first proper look at fillies who could develop into Magic Millions and Golden Slipper horses over the months ahead.

G3 Breeders' Plate (1000m) — 2YO C&G

The colts and geldings get their turn in the Breeders' Plate, another race that can put a juvenile immediately onto the early Golden Slipper radar.

Nonu ($2.80) heads the first market from Capitano ($3.50) and Fiji ($4.50), with Proverb ($6.00) next.

There is very little exposed race form to work with here, so Saturday is less about what they've already done and much more about finding out which of these youngsters might matter when the major juvenile races arrive.